Bankroll and unit sizing

A real edge does not protect you from ruin. Bet too large a fraction of your bankroll and a normal losing stretch — one entirely consistent with a good model — can take you to zero. At that point being right no longer helps.

Work in units, not currency

A unit is one standard stake, usually 1–2% of your total bankroll. Thinking in units keeps the decision consistent whether your bankroll is £500 or £50,000, and makes performance comparable across people.

It also removes an emotional lever. "I am down 3 units" is a fact. "I am down £600" invites a decision you will regret.

Why flat staking is usually right

Flat staking — the same size on every signal — is unglamorous and hard to beat. It removes the judgement call that most often goes wrong: sizing up because you feel confident.

Confidence is exactly the feeling least correlated with being right. If you vary stake at all, vary it on the model’s stated edge and confidence, not on your own conviction.

• Set your unit before you look at any signal.
• Never increase stakes to recover losses. Chasing is the single fastest route to serious harm.
• Expect losing runs. At 55%, a six-loss streak is unremarkable.
• Withdraw profits periodically rather than letting the bankroll ratchet up unchecked.

Track everything

People remember wins more vividly than losses. This is not a character flaw, it is how memory works, and it makes self-assessment unreliable. A written record does not have that problem.

Log every wager: the price you actually got, the stake, and the result. Without it you are guessing about your own performance, and the guess will flatter you.

If it stops being a choice

Staking discipline is a bankroll tool, not a safeguard against gambling harm. If you are betting money you cannot lose, chasing, hiding it, or unable to stop, no sizing strategy addresses that. Free, confidential help is available 24/7 on 1-800-522-4700.